AECOPD-CV Risk Calculator
Enter values and calculate risk.
Age, HF, AF, pH, urea, lactate.
| Score | Risk Level | Approx. Risk |
|---|---|---|
| 0–2 | Low | <10% |
| 3–5 | Intermediate | ~10–20% |
| 6–8 | High | ~20–35% |
| ≥9 | Very high | >35% |
Suggested Actions
- Calculate risk to view suggested actions.
The probability model uses exact continuous values. The bedside score is a simplified derived approximation.
AECOPD-CV Bedside Score Guide
Download PDFThis simplified bedside score is a practical approximation of the AECOPD-CV probability model. It is intended for quick clinical orientation when a calculator is not available. Investigators may download the printable hardcopy questionnaire, complete it at the bedside, and print it for paper-based completion when needed.
| Variable | Criteria | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Age | <80 years | 0 |
| ≥80 years | 1 | |
| History of heart failure | No / Yes | 0 / 2 |
| History of atrial fibrillation | No / Yes | 0 / 3 |
| Arterial pH | ≥7.35 / 7.30–7.34 / <7.30 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Urea | <42 / 42–60 / >60 mg/dL | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Lactate | <2 / 2–4 / >4 mmol/L | 0 / 1 / 2 |
Risk interpretation
| Score | Risk level | Approximate risk | Suggested action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2 | Low | <10% | Standard AECOPD care |
| 3–5 | Intermediate | ~10–20% | Consider closer monitoring |
| 6–8 | High | ~20–35% | Cardiac monitoring, ECG/biomarkers |
| ≥9 | Very high | >35% | Cardiac monitoring, ECG/biomarkers, early cardiology involvement |
About the AECOPD-CV Model
The AECOPD-CV model estimates the risk of in-hospital cardiovascular events among patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Model inputs
| Predictor | Type | Unit / coding |
|---|---|---|
| Age | Continuous | Years |
| History of heart failure | Binary | No = 0, Yes = 1 |
| History of atrial fibrillation | Binary | No = 0, Yes = 1 |
| Arterial pH | Continuous | Unitless |
| Urea | Continuous | Calculated internally in mg/dL |
| Lactate | Continuous | mmol/L |
Clinical interpretation
This calculator is intended for research and educational purposes only and should support, not replace, clinical judgment. Clinical decisions should be made in conjunction with patient assessment, institutional protocols, and specialist evaluation where appropriate. Higher predicted risk may support closer monitoring, ECG/biomarker assessment, and early cardiology involvement when clinically appropriate.
References
This section can be updated after manuscript submission or publication. Suggested reference structure is provided below.
- ACRONOS Study. AECOPD-CV model development and validation. Manuscript in preparation.
- Collins GS, Dhiman P, Navarro CLA, Ma J, Hooft L, Reitsma JB, et al. TRIPOD+AI statement: updated guidance for reporting clinical prediction models that use regression or machine learning methods. BMJ 2024;385:e078378.
- Johnson AEW, Bulgarelli L, Shen L, Gayles A, Shammout A, Horng S, et al. MIMIC-IV, a freely accessible electronic health record dataset. Sci Data 2023;10:1. doi:10.1038/s41597-022-01899-x.
- Pollard TJ, Johnson AEW, Raffa JD, Celi LA, Mark RG, Badawi O. The eICU Collaborative Research Database, a freely available multi-center database for critical care research. Sci Data 2018;5:180178. doi:10.1038/sdata.2018.178.
Contact
Use this section for study contact information, institutional affiliation, and support details.
ACRONOS Study
Acute Exacerbations of COPD and Cardiovascular Events
christeloskapatais@hotmail.com (Christelos Kapatais)
stavzaneli@gmail.com (Stavrina Zaneli)
siffisx@gmail.com (Sifis Chatzimichalis)
papaioannouandriana@gmail.com (Andrianna I. Papaioannou)
1st Department of Respiratory Medicine, Sotiria Hospital, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
This tool is for clinical research and educational use only.